Post #15602

Oil Tests Bearish Trendline as Supply Skepticism Supports Prices Oil is pushing higher and pressing against a daily bearish trendline, suggesting the market isn’t convinced supply will ramp up anytime soon. Despite Venezuela headlines, traders appear skeptical that production can return quickly, given the country’s severely damaged energy infrastructure and the economics of extracting heavy crude at current price levels. The infrastructure would require billions in investment to be restored and materially increase supply. Normally, more supply means lower prices — but for now, it's too early to tell. It’s a chart worth watching. Remember: - If oil spikes and holds elevated, it could introduce short-term inflation pressure and force the Fed to stay attentive on policy. - If oil fades and holds lower, it could help the inflation story and allow the Fed to cut rates faster. - Alan