Post #15668

Last Line of Defense for DXY Bears The dollar pushed above 99.4, as resilient U.S. data continues to ease pressure on the Fed to cut rates aggressively. Weekly jobless claims came in well below expectations, reinforcing that layoffs remain limited and the labor market is holding up despite higher borrowing costs. DXY is now approaching the 61.8% retracement — effectively the last line of defense for short-term dollar bears. With Trump saying he has no plans to remove Powell and markets expecting the Fed to hold steady this month before potentially cutting starting in June, the near-term bias remains supported. Technically, a clean break above the 61.8% level opens the door toward the 100 handle. The main wildcard remains the Supreme Court’s pending tariff ruling — I’m still unsure how the outcome will ultimately influence market direction. It’s a two-sided risk, and this is one of those situations where it’s best to let the market lead and see how the news is interpreted in real time. - Alan