Post #15674

Oil Rangebound as Risk Premium Fades Oil is trading mixed and largely rangebound as the market continues to price out near-term supply shocks. The immediate risk of U.S. military action in Iran has faded, and with no follow-through, the geopolitical risk premium is slowly unwinding. That’s keeping traders cautious, but less reactive than earlier in the week. The bigger picture remains bearish-leaning. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories surprised to the upside, Venezuela has resumed exports, and forecasts continue to point to a growing supply surplus. Headlines out of Iran, Venezuela, or geopolitics more broadly are creating short-term volatility, but without sustained physical disruptions, those moves have been fading quickly. Unless there’s a meaningful hit to Russian or Middle Eastern flows — or a clear pickup in Chinese demand — oil is likely to stay stuck in a range, with sentiment driving short bursts and fundamentals capping upside. - Alan