Post #15728

USD/JPY Down 540 Pips as Intervention Fears Grow USD/JPY opens the week down 1.2% The move comes as markets increasingly price the risk of coordinated U.S.–Japan FX intervention, following firm rhetoric from Tokyo and reports the New York Fed conducted a “rate check” with dealers — often viewed as a precursor to action. That sparked a sharp unwind of short-yen positioning, lifting the currency more than 3% off Friday’s lows and back to a two-month high. While Japanese officials signaled readiness to intervene, BOJ money market data suggested Friday’s spike was likely not outright intervention. Still, intervention risk alone has been enough to shake positioning and inject fresh volatility into USD/JPY. Another layer behind the yen’s strength is pressure on the dollar itself. Confidence in U.S. policy is being tested as Fed independence is questioned, tariff threats resurface, geopolitical acquisition attempts create noise, and a potential government shutdown looms. - Alan