Post #15733

Watch Out for Aussie CPI AUD is pressing into a higher-timeframe resistance zone, trading near its strongest levels since early 2023, driven largely by yield appeal. Australian bond yields continue to firm — with 3-year yields at their highest since November — as markets lean into the RBA’s hawkish stance and confidence in Australia’s credit quality. Domestic data has backed that narrative, with unemployment unexpectedly falling to a seven-month low, strengthening the case that the RBA still has room to tighten. Now it all comes down to inflation. Today’s monthly CPI and the Q4 trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core gauge) are key. Inflation is expected to tick back up after stalling, though trimmed mean is seen easing slightly. The RBA is already in a position where another hike is on the table. A hot print likely gives AUD the catalyst to break higher — in that case, a clean break and retest may be the higher-probability play if no pullback opportunities become present. - Alan