Post #15809

Oil Climbs on Iran Risk, But Supply Glut Could Cap the Move WTI is pushing back toward $65, up over 2.7%. But price is running into a zone where supply previously stepped in — this area could act as near-term resistance if follow-through stalls. The bid is coming from rising geopolitical risk. Headlines point to the U.S. potentially intercepting Iranian oil shipments and even adding another carrier group if nuclear talks break down. Traders are pricing the risk that failed negotiations could disrupt Iranian supply or trigger retaliation in key shipping lanes. However, the upside is being checked by fundamentals on the supply side. U.S. inventories reportedly surged by 13.4M barrels last week — a massive build if confirmed — reinforcing the broader narrative that the market is still facing surplus conditions. On deck: OPEC’s monthly outlook and the IEA report, both of which have warned that supply could outpace demand this year. If tensions cool, the recent spike in OIL could be faded quickly. - Alan