Post #15817

USD/CAD Holds as Oil Slumps and Surplus Fears Weigh on Loonie USD/CAD is holding its weight as the Canadian dollar comes under pressure. Yesterday's broader risk-off flows in equities and commodities are weighing on CAD, keeping the pair supported in the near term. Oil — one of Canada’s key exports — dropped roughly 3% toward $62 after the IEA cut its 2026 global demand forecast and reiterated expectations for a record supply surplus of 3.7M barrels per day. Inventories are expanding at the fastest pace since 2020, reinforcing the oversupply narrative. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions around Iran reduced the risk premium in crude, further pressuring prices. A U.S. House vote against tariffs on Canadian goods had little market impact, as the resolution is unlikely to override a veto. Canadian yields also moved lower, tracking U.S. Treasuries, adding another layer of pressure on CAD. - Alan