Post #15837

Kiwi Down 1%, Traders Dials Back Near-Term Hike Urgency NZD/USD is down ~1% on the day, fading back from recent highs as rate expectations cool. The selloff puts the pair back on the back foot near its near-term support zone, with momentum shifting bearish until buyers reclaim the post-RBNZ breakdown area. The kiwi is weaker after the RBNZ held the cash rate at 2.25% and reiterated a still-accommodative stance while policy “gradually normalises.” The key issue: markets were positioned for a more hawkish signal. While the RBNZ did lift its projected track slightly (rates averaging ~2.4% in Q4), it wasn’t hawkish enough to justify aggressive front-end pricing—so traders scaled back near-term hike bets (first hike odds pushed out toward late-year, ~70% by October). Focus now shifts to Gov. Anna Breman’s press conference for any clarity on timing: whether the Bank leans toward a Q4 hike baseline, or leaves the door open to earlier tightening. - Alan