Post #15867

EUR/USD in a Tug-of-War: Which Side Breaks First? EUR/USD remains in a tug-of-war between stronger Eurozone data and renewed U.S. trade pressure. The U.S. rolled out a new 10% global tariff, with reports pointing to a possible move to 15%, keeping uncertainty elevated and supporting the dollar. Trump also warned countries pushing back on trade deals could face higher duties after the European Parliament paused the U.S.-EU trade deal. On the euro side, PMI data surprised to the upside, with stronger manufacturing and services activity. Lagarde also pushed back on early-exit speculation, easing ECB leadership uncertainty. Future inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain will be key for ECB expectations, while the dollar remains supported by Fed minutes showing policymakers are split on the rate path. EdgeFinder shows a -8 bearish reading for EUR/USD. A break below 1.1750 and the 50-day moving average could open the door to further downside. - Alan