Post #15890

For my FX junkies, this one’s for you. FX is tricky right now for two reasons: 1. We don’t know how deep the risk-off move will be. 2. Each currency has a different role. The best setups come from pairing a very strong currency against a very weak one. That means understanding how each currency is likely to behave in this geopolitical backdrop. Risk-Off (likely stronger at the open): USD, CHF, JPY. A pair like USD/CHF can help show the severity of the move. If CHF is clearly outperforming USD, that signals a real flight to safety. Risk-On (likely weaker at the open): AUD and NZD are the two main risk-on currencies likely to bleed. I’ve already seen AUD/CHF quoted down 1.11% pre-market. EUR, GBP, and CAD may also come under pressure as USD catches a bid. With that in mind, avoid trading pairs that serve the same role. CHF/JPY may stay flat because both are safe havens. AUD/NZD may also stay flat because both are risk-on. Cheers - Alan