Post #15893

Oil Surges as Hormuz Disruption Fuels a Supply Shock Oil is ripping higher as the market prices in a real supply shock, not just headline risk. WTI has pushed above $75, with momentum still tilted higher. This is first and foremost an oil move. The main driver is the Strait of Hormuz, where disruption to shipping and tanker traffic is raising serious supply concerns. Roughly 20% of global oil flows move through Hormuz, so any sustained impairment there keeps the market on edge. OPEC+ did agree to raise output by 206,000 bpd in April, but that increase is too small to offset a meaningful Hormuz disruption. Right now, geopolitics is overpowering the added supply. That said, this is already a crowded trade. As long as Hormuz remains disrupted, oil stays fundamentally supported and the path of least resistance remains higher. But for price to break materially beyond recent highs, the market likely needs a fresh catalyst. - Alan