Post #15921

Oil Shrugs Off Military Escort Talk as Prices Stay Bid WTI is pushing higher again, up more than 3% and trading toward $78, nearing its highest level since January 2025. This move is still being driven by geopolitics and supply constraints. The Middle East conflict is disrupting flows, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired—keeping a risk premium firmly embedded in crude. Efforts to calm the market, including ideas around vessel insurance and naval escorts, haven’t been enough to restore confidence. Adding fuel to the upside, China has reportedly ordered major refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports, tightening the refined products picture at a time when the market is already sensitive to disruption risk. On the other side, the latest EIA print did offer a buffer: U.S. crude inventories rose 3.5M barrels to 439.3M, above expectations. But for now, the inventory build is taking a back seat to the bigger driver—restricted supply risk and escalation uncertainty. - Alan