Post #15936

S&P 500 Reprices an Oil Shock as Stagflation Risk Hits Equities The S&P 500 is trading under clear risk-off pressure as equities reprice higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions. In this environment, rallies tend to get sold and volatility stays elevated until oil and rates stabilize. Global equities are getting hit by an energy-driven macro shock. Oil has surged into 3 digit territory as the Middle East war drags on, reviving “oil shock” and “stagflation” risk: higher inflation with slowing growth. That’s a problem because it comes right after a weak U.S. jobs report, raising fears the labor market is stalling just as price pressures re-accelerate. Bond markets: yields are rising as inflation expectations climb and rate-cut hopes get pushed back. Higher yields tighten liquidity and weigh on equity multiples, especially in a market that’s already sensitive to policy uncertainty. At the same time, the dollar is catching a safe-haven bid, while gold has struggled to act like a clean hedge - Alan