Post #15937

Oil Opened Up 28%, Then Faded Lower. Here's Why: Momentum is being driven by supply risk pricing, not normal macro demand flows. Events influencing oil’s move higher, then lower (in chronological order) 1. Oil infrastructure was hit for the first time as the conflict spilled into energy assets—most notably the drone strike that led Saudi Aramco to halt operations at Ras Tanura, with broader precautionary shutdowns across the region. 2. Iran selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, a hardline succession that markets read as a negative for near-term de-escalation and resolution odds. 3. With oil now in triple digits, the G7 is meeting Monday to discuss potential emergency reserve releases to try to calm prices and stabilize supply expectations. As storage fills and logistics break down, major producers have started curbing output—keeping the market tight and the risk premium elevated. - Alan