Post #15943

AUD/USD Up 1% as Markets Price RBA Hikes Regardless of the Backdrop AUD/USD is up about 1% on the day and pushing into a key resistance zone near 0.7150. This is a level that can decide whether the move extends or stalls. The currency has shown some relative strength during the flash of risk-off trading we saw. Since the U.S.-Iran strikes kicked off on March 1, EdgeFinder’s AUD scorecard has stayed bullish from March 4 through today, showing consistent underlying support. Last week’s COT data had AUD near the top with +2.6% net accumulation, and the broader Top Setups view continues to flag the AUD basket as the strongest. The core driver remains rates. Australia’s inflation backdrop has stayed elevated, with CPI around 3.8% across the last four prints. If global inflation spills over from geopolitics, it only reinforces the “higher-for-longer” profile. With the RBA decision next week, markets are now pricing two hikes by August and a strong chance of three by year-end, implying a peak near 4.5%. - Alan