Post #15955

Dow Down -1.05%: Higher Rates Are Not Good The Dow is back under pressure, down about 1.05%, as global equities sell off on another leg higher in oil. Price action remains risk-off, and until energy cools or rates stabilize, rallies will likely stay capped. This is an oil-driven macro shock feeding straight into equities. The market’s reaction is telling: crude barely blinked even after a record 400M-barrel reserve release, which signals traders are pricing a longer disruption window, not a quick fix. Even at that size, the release only covers roughly 2–4 weeks of global demand—if Gulf flows remain impaired beyond that, the supply picture can tighten again fast. With that timeline, markets are already shifting to the second-order effects: higher inflation risk and tighter central bank policy paths. Fed pricing has turned more hawkish, with the second cut effectively gone and markets now leaning toward barely one cut in 2026. February CPI was in line, but it’s backward-looking. - Alan