Post #15957

A Breakout or Another Wick To The Downside? DXY is grinding higher near 99.4, extending gains for a fourth straight session and hovering near two-month highs. The next level to watch is 99.50, a zone that has rejected price in the past—acceptance above it would signal a cleaner breakout. The dollar is staying supported as the Iran conflict drags on and oil remains bid, keeping inflation risk elevated and reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate backdrop. U.S. data has been steady: jobless claims came in slightly better at 212K, and the trade deficit narrowed in January—both modestly USD-supportive. Next catalyst is the Fed. Rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, but markets will focus on the dot plot and forward guidance. With inflation risk rising through energy, the bar for cuts stays high, which keeps the dollar underpinned. - Alan