Post #15971

AUD/USD Up 1.10% as RBA Hike Bets Rise on Oil-Driven Inflation Risk AUD/USD is recovering, back near 0.70 after last week’s pullback. This area is important—holding above it keeps the rebound constructive, while rejection would signal the bounce is losing steam. AUD is catching a bid as markets lean more hawkish on the RBA. Middle East escalation is pushing oil higher and reviving inflation risk, which keeps the “rates up” narrative alive for Australia. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck targets near Kharg Island and warned it could expand attacks on energy infrastructure if Hormuz shipping is disrupted—adding fuel to the inflation story. The key catalyst is the RBA decision Tuesday. Markets are looking for a second consecutive hike to 4.1%, and are pricing the possibility of additional hikes into year-end, potentially taking the cash rate above the prior cycle peak. If the hike comes through, the real market mover will be guidance—how far the RBA signals it’s willing to go if inflation stays sticky - Alan