Post #15976

The Awaited RBA Meeting Is Now Behind Us. Here's What Happened: AUD/USD is holding firm near 0.709, building on the 1.3% rally from the prior session. Near-term support sits around 0.69500, while resistance is the 0.72000 area (recent multi-year high). AUD is catching a bid after the RBA delivered a 25bp hike to 4.10%, but the bigger takeaway was the message: the debate was about timing, not direction. Even with a tight 5–4 split, Governor Bullock repeatedly flagged inflation risk and made it clear the board isn’t convinced policy is restrictive enough yet to bring inflation back to target. Markets took the tone as hawkish and pushed up the probability of another hike in May, while a move to 4.35% remains priced by August. Core inflation around 3.4% is still too sticky, which keeps the tightening bias alive. The split vote also reflects added uncertainty from the Iran conflict—but the signal is still the same: the RBA is leaning toward doing more, not less. - Alan