Post #16014

AUD/USD Stable as Oil Pullback Supports Risk Sentiment AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range here—support sits at ~0.6900, while resistance comes in at 0.71500. The Aussie is stabilizing as oil pulls back, helping risk sentiment a bit after recent pressure. That said, the macro backdrop is still mixed. Inflation data didn’t move the needle much—headline CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% YoY, and core came in a touch softer at 3.3%, but both remain above the RBA’s target. The bigger story is energy. With petrol prices up ~45%, markets are expecting inflation to re-accelerate near-term. Because of that, the RBA is still in play for more hikes. Markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a May hike, with rates potentially pushing toward ~4.75% by year-end. That’s keeping a floor under AUD for now. On the flip side, broader rate expectations and global risk still matter. If yields stay elevated and risk sentiment rolls over again, AUD likely struggles to sustain upside. - Alan