Post #16021

The Chart That Will Answer All Your Questions Yields are driving asset price action right now. When yields rise, markets price in higher-for-longer rates—pressuring equities, gold, and other risk assets. When yields fall, it signals a shift back toward easier policy and supports risk. The US10Y pushing toward ~4.35% tells you everything about positioning—rates higher = tighter conditions. Rising yields reflect sticky inflation expectations and higher-for-longer policy, largely driven by the energy shock tied to Middle East tensions. As long as oil stays elevated and inflation risk lingers, the Fed has no urgency to ease. Watch yields. They’re the clearest read on macro sentiment and will dictate where everything else trades. - Alan