Post #16029

UK Economy Shows Signs of a Slowdown as Inflation Stays Sticky GBP/USD is hovering near 1.328, sitting right on a key support zone at 1.3250. The pound is stuck between macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. On the geopolitical side, markets are still skeptical of any near-term resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions. Deadlines keep getting pushed, talks are unclear, and positioning reflects that uncertainty. At the same time, BoE expectations have flipped hawkish. Markets have gone from pricing cuts to now expecting at least two hikes, possibly more this year. That shift is helping support GBP on dips. Domestically, the data is mixed. Retail sales weren’t as weak as feared, but consumer confidence is sliding, showing households are feeling the pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. If things worsen—growth deteriorates further while inflation stays high—that’s when the stagflation becomes a reality for the UK. - Alan