Post #16044

EUR/USD Ends March at a 2.23% Loss EUR/USD closed the month below 1.15, drifting lower after a volatile stretch. Price remains capped, with the 200-day MA acting as resistance, and rallies likely to get sold into under current conditions. The euro is under pressure from a strong dollar and worsening macro backdrop. Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices are feeding inflation across Europe, forcing a shift in ECB expectations. Markets have flipped from pricing cuts to now expecting rate hikes into 2026, but that hasn’t been enough to support EUR. Growth concerns and ongoing uncertainty are still dominating. Add in a bearish fundamental bias (EdgeFinder score of -8), and the setup favors selling strength rather than chasing upside. This week is data-heavy for both the U.S. and Eurozone, which could reshape the macro outlook. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower. - Alan