Post #16052

Euro Bounce Looks Tactical For Now, Not a Trend Shift EUR/USD is catching a bounce back toward 1.16 after Trump floated a potential U.S. exit from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal. That was enough to give the euro some breathing room after a brutal March where it dropped over 2%. But nothing’s actually resolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still a problem, oil is still elevated, and inflation risks across Europe aren’t going anywhere. Markets have already started adjusting. Rate expectations for the ECB have been dialed back—less than two hikes now priced for 2026 vs. as many as three just weeks ago. That’s a shift. And structurally, not much has changed. EdgeFinder is still sitting at a bearish -8. So while price is bouncing, the underlying story hasn’t flipped. This still looks like a relief rally inside a broader weak backdrop—not a full reversal. - Alan