Post #16075

The Next 24 Hours Are Critical Technically, oil remains elevated as markets wrestle with conflicting sentiment . The tone shifted fast after Trump signaled a hard deadline, with direct threats toward Iranian infrastructure if the strait isn’t reopened. That kind of rhetoric keeps risk premium elevated and volatility high. On the supply side, OPEC+ is trying to offset war-driven disruptions with higher output, but it’s not enough to fully close the gap. Physical markets are already showing stress — inventories are drawing down against a sizable deficit, and Saudi Aramco’s aggressive price hike to Asia confirms just how tight things are getting. From a macro lens, this feeds straight into inflation. Higher oil supports energy names and petro-currencies, but it’s a headwind for broader risk as it pressures yields and delays any easing cycle. Iran rejecting the ceasefire adds another layer of uncertainty, with the next 24 hours being critical into Trump’s stated deadline. - Alan