Post #16080

Oil Holds Elevated Into Deadline as Chokepoint Risk Drives Market Tension Oil is holding elevated levels as markets brace for a critical deadline, with geopolitical risk fully in control of price action. The focus has now shifted to the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, where potential closure adds another layer of supply risk on top of an already restricted Hormuz. Bab el-Mandeb accounts for roughly 10–12% of global oil trade. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, it creates a real bottleneck in global energy flows, which is why the market is forced to price in that tail risk. That’s where you start talking about a move toward $120+. The oil market remains on edge into the 8 PM EST deadline. Any signs of de-escalation or increased flow through these routes could ease the risk premium. Until then, oil stays supported with volatility elevated and headlines driving direction. - Alan