Post #16081

Yields Climb as Oil-Driven Inflation Risk Reprices the Front End Yields are pushing higher again, with the 2-year back near 3.86% as geopolitical risk takes control. Escalation threats out of the U.S. are outweighing earlier ceasefire optimism, keeping pressure on the front end as markets reprice inflation risk. This is being driven by oil. Elevated energy prices are feeding into inflation expectations, not just in the U.S. but globally — and that’s showing up in rising yields across the board. From a policy standpoint, the Fed is still expected to hold steady in the near term, with no immediate changes priced in. But the focus now shifts to incoming data — durable goods, inflation prints, and FOMC minutes — for confirmation on how sticky these pressures really are. - Alan