Post #16087

S&P 500 Surges as Ceasefire Sparks Risk-On Repricing Markets are ripping higher after a two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran triggered a broad risk-on move. Oil broke back below $100, and that’s been the key driver — once energy came off, everything else followed. Equities higher, bonds bid, yields down, dollar weaker. This entire move is a direct unwind of the oil-driven risk premium that’s been dominating markets. With crude pulling back, traders are reopening the door for Fed cuts, which adds fuel to the rally in equities. That said, nothing is confirmed. The ceasefire is conditional, and its durability is still a big question mark. Markets may be reacting aggressively, but they’re not fully convinced this is a lasting resolution. Technically, this is a sharp squeeze higher — but chasing here is risky. The bulk of the move has already played out, and unless the ceasefire holds, this can reverse just as fast. - Alan