Post #16091

Can The Euro Sustain This Rally? EUR/USD is holding firm just below 1.17, but price action is being pulled in both directions as markets question how stable this ceasefire really is. On one hand, escalating tensions — strikes in Lebanon, Iran pushing back on talks, and ongoing disruptions in Hormuz — are keeping oil elevated again. That reintroduces inflation risk and adds uncertainty across markets. On the policy side, the Euro is getting support from shifting ECB expectations. Markets are now leaning toward additional hikes into 2026, which is helping keep the currency bid. At the same time, the dollar remains on shaky footing after recent weakness, adding to the upside in EUR/USD. The entire move is conditional on the ceasefire holding. If tensions continue to escalate and oil stays bid, that dynamic can shift quickly — especially if the dollar catches a safe-haven bid again. - Alan