Post #16105

A Directional Bias On Dollar Can't Be Made Right Now. DXY is stuck in a tug-of-war right now with no clear directional bias. On one side, failed negotiations and lingering geopolitical tension are giving the dollar some support as a safe haven. On the other, any optimism around a resolution keeps risk currencies bid, which caps upside in the dollar. That’s the push-pull dynamic driving price. According to a BofA survey, investors aren’t fully buying into dollar strength — if anything, there’s a growing conviction that the move higher is temporary. The broader view is that once geopolitical risk fades, the Fed leans dovish, which puts pressure on the dollar longer term. That’s why you’re seeing reluctance to go long. Short dollar is building as a higher conviction trade, while markets continue to favor risk and front-end rate exposure. Technically, this results in choppy price action. Until there’s clarity on geopolitics or Fed direction, DXY remains rangebound. - Alan