Post #16112

The Market Is Now Positive On The Year PPI came in cooler than expected across the board — but still too hot for the Fed. Inflation at the producer level is easing on the margin, but it’s not anywhere near the 2% target, with energy continuing to drive most of the upside. This doesn’t give the Fed a reason to cut anytime soon. If anything, it reinforces the shift back toward inflation concerns over growth. But markets don’t care. Equities are pushing higher regardless, with the S&P now sitting just ~1% off all-time highs. This is a sentiment-driven move, not one backed by clean macro alignment. That’s where risk comes in. You’re chasing price into highs while inflation is still elevated and the Iran situation remains unresolved. Technically, upside is stretched. In this “hopium” environment (thanks @ the_contrarian for this perfect verbage), patience matters — waiting for a meaningful pullback is the higher probability play. - Alan