Post #16118

Risk Currencies Are Getting Bid Up. Here's an update on AUD. AUD/USD is pushing back toward relative highs as ceasefire extensions and continued progress in talks bring risk back into the market. You’re seeing capital rotate back into risk-sensitive currencies, with the Aussie leading. On the macro side, AUD has an added tailwind — the RBA already has a tightening bias due to elevated inflation. That yield advantage, combined with improving sentiment, is supporting the move higher. Markets are now looking ahead to jobs data. A strong print reinforces the case for another hike and adds fuel to the rally. A miss, though, shifts the narrative quickly — especially with signs that growth could be slowing, putting the RBA in a tougher position. Technically, momentum is to the upside, but it’s data-dependent from here. The next leg will be driven by whether the macro can validate the move. - Alan