Post #16129

Happy Friday! De-Escalation Momentum Picks Up Oil is down nearly 15% on the back of very constructive headlines out of the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is confirmed open during the ceasefire, with Iran signaling it will remain accessible — a major shift given how critical that route is for global supply. Markets are quickly repricing the risk. What was a major supply shock for nearly two months is now being unwound, with additional tailwinds coming from potential US-Iran agreements and further negotiations ahead. This is a clean risk-on signal. Energy is cooling, pressure is coming off inflation, and markets are responding accordingly. But be careful chasing this move. Oil doesn’t move in straight lines — and after a drop like this, you have to expect some level of stabilization or bounce, especially if headlines stall or reverse. - Alan