Post #16151

A Directional Call On USD Is Tough. Here's The Latest: DXY holding near 98.6, a two-week high. Momentum is flattening — watch for a push above 99.0 to confirm continuation. Failure keeps it range-bound. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is the dominant driver. Trump ordered the Navy to target vessels laying mines, while Iran has shut down international traffic through it. US PMIs beat across the board — services 51.3, manufacturing 54.0, composite 52.0. The economy is accelerating while Europe contracts. But Fed futures are swinging wildly — markets price just a 24% chance of a December cut, down from two cuts pre-conflict. Trading rate path expectations here is a coin flip. Macro supports the dollar, but positioning is cautious. Traders are shortening time horizons, collecting premium, and waiting for clarity. Until the Fed path or Middle East resolves, expect choppy action. Don't get too bold. - Alan