Post #16152

Eurozone Prints The Weakest Services PMI Since COVID Lockdown EUR/USD sits at 1.1700, its weakest in two weeks after failing to break above 1.18. Short-term downtrend intact. The divergence is widening. US flash PMIs beat across the board — services 51.3, manufacturing 54.0, composite 52.0. The eurozone printed contraction at 48.6, first since late 2024. Services at 47.4 is the worst since pandemic lockdowns. Europe's energy shock is pushing inflation higher while crushing growth underneath it. The ECB is in a tricky spot. Rates held at 2.00% since June, but markets now price up to three hikes in 2026 — a full reversal from last year's cuts. Inflation forecast raised to 2.6%, growth slashed to 0.9%. Textbook stagflation setup. EUR/USD is getting hit from both sides — dollar strength above, eurozone fundamentals cracking below. April 30's ECB decision is the key meeting next week. If growth keeps deteriorating, the rate repricing that's been supporting the euro could unwind fast. - Alan