Post #16161

Will Equities Fold Or Keep Moving In A Straight Line Up? Watch Out For This: S&P 500 sitting right at all-time highs after erasing the entire Iran war selloff in under two weeks. This week is the test. Companies representing 44% of the index's market cap report — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta on Wednesday, Apple on Thursday. So far, 81.3% of reporters have beaten expectations, above the four-quarter average. But Q1 results only capture roughly one month of war disruption. The real margin pressure from surging energy costs hasn't fully hit yet. The Fed holds Wednesday in what could be one of Powell's final meetings before Warsh takes the chair. A hold is fully priced — the press conference is what matters, particularly any shift in tone on inflation as oil holds above $95. Markets are pricing peace and peak earnings at the same time. If both hold, the rally extends. If guidance cracks or the Iran stalemate deepens, these are the levels where the unwind starts. - Alan