Post #16177

Oil Inventories Are Dropping Fast And The Blockade May Get Extended WTI above $103, third straight session of gain. Price is back in breakout mode with the only technical resistance nearby is ~117. The supply picture is tightening fast. US crude inventories fell 6.2M barrels vs expectations of just 0.2M. Gasoline stocks dropped 6.1M barrels, nearly triple the forecast. Distillates down 4.5M vs 2.2M expected. Across the board, draws are accelerating as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown — roughly 20% of global oil shipments — squeezes supply chains the IEA is calling the largest supply shock on record. The UAE's exit from OPEC effective May 1 is the structural story. It doesn't change supply today — Hormuz is closed anyway — but post-war, the UAE will pump without quota constraints, targeting 5M bpd. That's long-term bearish, but irrelevant at $103. Near-term, there's no relief valve. Peace talks are stalled, Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal, and Washington is escalating sanctions pressure. - Alan