Post #16189

The Next ECB Meeting Can Cause Volatility EUR/USD at 1.1756, reclaiming support after the ECB held unanimously but debated hiking for the first time this cycle. The 50-day EMA has held for five straight sessions — that's the line on any pullback. Lagarde confirmed June is the real decision, saying in six weeks they'll have enough clarity to act. Markets price ~65bps of tightening by year-end. Eurozone CPI hit 3% in April. The data supports a move. But this is a two-sided setup. If the war de-escalates and energy costs drop, that hike pricing unwinds fast — the ECB would have no reason to tighten into a fragile recovery. If oil stays above $100, hikes are locked in and the euro runs. Lagarde said they made "an informed decision based on as-yet insufficient information." The ECB is flying blind. EUR/USD is coiled — direction depends on the Strait of Hormuz over the next six weeks. - Alan