Post #16194

Is USD/JPY About To Make Another Leg Lower? USD/JPY moved abruptly during thin Asian liquidity. Tokyo officials won't confirm, but sources say they were buying yen for the first time in two years. The intervention playbook is clear: Japan acts in bursts to punish overcrowded positioning, then steps back. Each spike lower shakes out leveraged longs, creates panic, and resets sentiment — but the fundamental rate differential (3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ) hasn't changed. That gravity pulls USD/JPY higher every time the intervention effect fades. The key question is whether Washington joins in. Bilateral intervention would be a different story entirely. Until that's confirmed, these are temporary disruptions, not trend changes. Don't chase. The pair is stalling between intervention floors and yield-driven ceilings. Markets are engineered to shake people out on both sides right now. Without a clear break below 154 with follow-through, shorting USD/JPY here is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. - Alan