Post #16195

Will "Project Freedom" Push Oil Lower? Oil briefly dipped under $100 on the Asian open after the US launched Project Freedom — destroyers escorting stranded tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting today. Brent fell 2.4% to below $108. This doesn't reopen the Strait — it gets a handful of ships out under heavy military cover. Iran's mines are still in the water, and Tehran is calling it a ceasefire violation. A tanker was already struck overnight. Normal commercial traffic isn't resuming. The "new Hormuz" requires military escort, not the free navigation markets are wanting. OPEC+ raised June output by 188K bpd Sunday — the first meeting without the UAE. OPEC lost 7.88M bpd in March alone. The increase is a rounding error against that. The ceasefire is holding in name only. No direct fire since April 7, but both sides are blockading each other and seizing ships. The question isn't whether this is peace — it isn't. It's whether the pressure forces a deal or triggers something worse. - Alan