Post #16203

Is The Floor In Equities Strong? Nasdaq futures are pointing higher on fresh Hormuz escalations. Weird, right? The index is caught in a tug-of-war — geopolitical risk pulling it down, AI-driven earnings revisions pulling it up. For now, earnings are winning. The numbers are hard to ignore. S&P 500 full-year earnings growth forecasts have been revised up to 23% from 18% just a month ago. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all crushed it. AI capex commitments are accelerating. The market is telling you it believes the spending will monetize — and until that thesis breaks, dips (if you even want to call it that) are getting bought. Markets are pricing strong growth and ignoring the war. That works until it doesn't. If Hormuz escalates into a hot conflict, the oil shock reprices everything — earnings estimates included. - Alan