Post #16227

DXY Analysis: The Apetite For Risk Is Strong DXY slipping on Friday, on pace for a second straight weekly decline. The dollar's safe-haven bid is fading as investors grow cautiously optimistic about a deal to end the Iran conflict. The rotation is clear — money is drifting out of USD and into riskier currencies. April payrolls beat expectations while unemployment held at 4.3%, but the market barely flinched. Payrolls have been choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses — one print isn't changing anyone's thesis. The trend leans toward softening and points firmly to a Fed on hold. The broader dynamic: the dollar rallied on war fears and Hormuz disruptions. If those unwind, the premium unwinds with it. Traders who piled into USD as a safe haven are now unwinding as peace talks progress. A deal weakens the dollar further as the risk premium evaporates. A collapse in talks sends DXY right back up. Until then, path of least resistance is lower while ceasefire optimism holds. - Alan