Post #16228

Canadian Dollar: The Economy Lost 18,000 Jobs In April Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April vs +15,000 expected. Unemployment at 6.9%, a six-month high. 111,000 full-time jobs lost since January. Businesses aren't firing, they're frozen. Tariffs, the war, and unclear BoC direction created a hiring freeze. Oil has been CAD's best friend since March — WTI surging from $67 to $120 pulled USD/CAD from 1.40 toward 1.36. But oil crashed 12% this week on peace deal headlines. If a deal lands and WTI trends toward $80–90, the loonie's biggest tailwind disappears. The jobs miss gives the BoC every reason to hold at 2.25%. Wages cooling from 5.1% to 4.8% kills the sticky-wages argument for a hike. The labor market is building slack, not overheating. CAD is in limbo. The commodity bid is fading and there's no rate support to replace it. A peace deal is bearish for the loonie — counterintuitive, but that's just how it is. - Alan