Post #16231

Bonds Analysis: Starting Off The Week With Yields Higher The 10-year climbing back to 4.39% after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." The 30-year briefly topped 5% last week. Yields are being pulled higher by persistent inflation fears as oil stays elevated and the war drags on with no resolution in sight. Friday's NFP beat — 115K vs 62K expected — reinforced the Fed's hold stance. Unemployment steady at 4.3%, wage growth soft at 0.2% MoM. The labor market isn't breaking, but it's not overheating either. Markets now price roughly a 40% chance of a hike by April 2027. Rate cuts are off the table entirely. April CPI drops this week — the most important print in months. Traders need to see how surging oil is feeding through to broader prices. A hot number pushes yields higher and locks in the "higher for longer" narrative. A soft print gives the bond market room to breathe. Until either oil drops or CPI cools, yields stay sticky near these levels. - Alan