Post #16234

DXY Analysis: The Fed Is Now Forzen With "Hike Risk" April CPI came in hot — 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, above the 3.7% forecast. Core CPI hit 2.8%, also above expectations at 0.4% MoM. Energy accounted for over 40% of the total increase. Gasoline up 28.4% YoY. Inflation was 2.4% before the war started. It's now nearly doubled in two months. The Fed's position just shifted. They were frozen — couldn't cut, wouldn't hike. Now they're frozen with hike risk. Traders raised hike odds to ~30% by year-end. Bank of America doesn't see a cut until second half of 2027. Real wages fell 0.5% in April — the first time in three years inflation is eating all wage gains. The core print is what matters most. At 2.8% and accelerating, this isn't just an energy story anymore — price pressures are broadening into shelter, food, and airfares. That's the kind of inflation the Fed can't "look through." - Alan