Post #16238

NZD/USD Analysis: Rate Hike Bets Fade Amid Strong Dollar NZD/USD at 0.5936, positioned above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages — all providing dynamic support. The pair is rangebound between 0.5850 support and 0.6100 resistance, with price at the midpoint of this 250-pip range. Gov. Breman's indication that core inflation remained within the RBNZ's target band during Q1 has tempered May rate hike expectations to roughly 35%. A July increase, however, remains fully priced as elevated energy costs from the Hormuz disruption continue feeding into broader prices. Tuesday's US CPI at 3.8% and this morning's 6.0% PPI has compounded dollar strength, narrowing the window for NZD appreciation. The rate differential continues to favor the dollar as the Fed's policy stance shifts from frozen to hike-risk territory. Near-term direction hinges on the May 28 NZ Budget and developments in Middle East negotiations. A sustained break below the 200-day SMA would tilt the technical picture to the downside. — Alan