Post #16242

U.S. Dollar Analysis: The Fed Is Now Frozen With "Hike Risk" DXY at 98.60, fourth consecutive session of gains — the longest streak since late March. Price has reclaimed the 200-day SMA, with 98.00 confirming as support. The next target for bulls is 99.50, the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range. This week's data has reinforced the Fed's hold. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0% annually, and import prices at 1.9% — nearly double consensus — have eliminated rate cut expectations for 2026. Hike probability is building as inflation broadens beyond energy into services and trade. Warsh's Senate confirmation as Fed chair adds a forward-looking variable. The transition is unlikely to shift near-term policy, but markets will begin pricing his communication style and priorities in the coming weeks. The critical variable remains the Middle East. If a resolution materializes — lower oil, declining yields, easing inflation — the rate repricing supporting the dollar reverses. read the full article here. — Alan