Alchemy Assets®

#Macro While Crypto looks good, there could be some headwinds regarding Macro. First, we have to see if DXY breaks out from this downtrend. If DXY breaks aggressively to the upside, this could stifle the growth of risk assets like stocks and crypto.

BTC #Macro analysis 📈 Analyzing the historical patterns of Bitcoin drawdowns brings interesting insights. It appears that November's low might have marked a significant long-term bottom, considering the minor, not to say weak, extent of price declines during the recent upward movement. This can mean two things: Bitcoin is much more stable today than the years before, or we will have a big drawdown soon. Our research suggests the latter is the case, a fragile market being hit by a smaller black swan event would create such a situation. A legend of bottoms from previous cycles and their corresponding later drawdowns: 🟨 Genesis to 2011 Bull Peak Drawdown: -49.4% 🟥 2011-2013 Bull Peak Drawdown: -71.2% 🟦 2015-2017 Bull Peak Drawdown: -36% 🟩 2018-2021 Bull Peak Drawdown: -62.6% 🔳 2022+ Bull Peak Drawdown: -18.6%

DXY, what to expect? A question that reached me: "I am still on the course that Fiat is no longer attractive in principle. But I'm reading more and more that a recession is coming. And in a recession, people are the first to jump into Fiat. So I'm actually in two minds right now. What do you think?" Answer: DXY = dollar-strength-index against a basket of other currencies. If people jump to fiat out of fear, it will be globally. Meaning, per se dominance of dollar is unaffected. All Fiat should go up equally. Short term I'm bullish on DXY however long term it should go down. Question: "So you're keeping some euros or dollars too? Not all in BTC/Gold/Silver?" Answer: Yes. I keep dry Powder. I expect Altcoins to hit new lows. If BTC reaches 20k again, altcoins will be lower than when BTC was at 16k! Meaning BTC.d (the dominance of Bitcoin against all other Crypto) goes UP. And as I said in #Macro I’m planning to accumulate altcoins at this point!