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BoJ 우에다(Ueda) 총재: 임금과 물가가 완만하게 동반 상승하는 메커니즘, 지속될 가능성 높아 금리는 못내린다잉~ 금리인하 옵션은 없다잉~ #BOJ

交易员对日本央行4月28日加息的押注概率从周一上午的45%骤降至约33%，而就在上周五，该概率一度接近60%。#BoJ

日本央行维持利率在0.75%不变，符合市场预期，投票比例为8-1。 日本央行审议委员高田创建议将短期利率目标从0.75%上调至1.0%，其表示价格稳定目标已基本实现，受海外局势引发的价格上涨二轮效应影响，日本物价风险偏向上行。 日本央行：受中东冲突影响，金融市场正呈现不稳定走势。 原油价格大幅上涨，未来发展值得高度警惕。 核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅可能暂时放缓至2%以下，但受油价上涨影响将再次加速。 日本很可能维持工资与物价同步温和上涨的机制。 必须高度警惕原油价格上涨对潜在通胀可能产生的影响。 日本经济前景面临的风险包括中东局势、油价走势以及包括外汇在内的市场动态。#BoJ

日央行副行长未暗示3月加息，称中东局势或影响日本经济与物价。 市场定价显示本月日本加息概率仅6%。#BOJ

东京2月核心 #CPI 降至1.8%，受能源补贴影响自2024年10月以来首破2%目标。但剔除能源后的通胀升至2.5%，服务价格稳健上行，显示底层压力仍存。 #BoJ#加息

📰Top News and Events for the Upcoming Week (Sept 29–5 October, 2025) for Gold and Forex Hey traders! 👋 📣 This week, gold and forex markets are driven by the FOMC minutes, RBNZ rate decision, BoJ governor’s speech, and key data like Eurozone retail sales, China CPI, Canada unemployment, and US consumer sentiment. Following the Fed’s September rate cut, markets are watching for further easing signals, which could weaken the USD and push gold toward new highs above $4,000. However, a hawkish FOMC tone or strong data might trigger a USD rebound and gold pullback. Key pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are set for volatility. Here’s a day-by-day breakdown for your trades – let’s get ready! 📈 ✉️Follow @shadowtraderfx for more! ✅Monday, October 6, 2025 📎Gold: Focus on Eurozone Retail Sales (5:00 ET) – weak data could boost safe-haven demand, pushing XAU/USD above $4,020. Consolidation likely around $4,000–$4,010, but profit-taking may test $3,980 support. 📎Forex: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1050 awaiting Euro data; USD/JPY below 145 amid JPY caution (support 144.5). Key event: Eurozone Retail Sales – weak data could pressure the euro. 💡 Tip: Low volume Monday; prepare for breakouts post-data. ✅Tuesday, October 7, 2025 📎Gold: Quiet day with no major data – gold may consolidate around $4,000, but FOMC minutes expectations could drive bullish pressure. 📎Forex: No major events; EUR/USD around 1.1050, GBP/USD near 1.3150, and USD/JPY at 145 steady. Markets eye Wednesday’s catalysts. 💡 Tip: Use low volatility to position for high-impact days. ✅Wednesday, October 8, 2025 📎Gold: FOMC minutes (2:00 ET) are key – a dovish tone could push gold to $4,050+ (USD weakness). RBNZ rate decision (previous day, 9:00 PM ET) and BoJ governor’s speech (previous day, 9:45 PM ET) also impactful. Hawkish data tests $3,950 support. 📎Forex: FOMC dominates; dovish signals weaken USD, lifting EUR/USD to 1.1100 and GBP/USD to 1.3200. USD/JPY may drop to 144 on BoJ speech. 💡 Tip: High-impact day – trade cautiously and tighten stops. ✅Thursday, October 9, 2025 📎Gold: China CPI (previous day, 9:30 PM ET) in focus – low inflation could raise global growth concerns, pushing gold above $4,030 as a safe-haven. 📎Forex: China CPI drives action – weak data pressures CNY and may strengthen USD, impacting AUD/USD. EUR/USD consolidates at 1.1080. 💡 Tip: Expect volatility from Asia – use limit orders. ✅Friday, October 10, 2025 📎Gold: Canada Unemployment (8:30 ET) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 ET) – weak data weakens USD and CAD, keeping gold above $4,020. Bullish weekly close if USD softens. 📎Forex: Canada Unemployment impacts CAD/USD; Michigan Sentiment moves USD. EUR/USD tests 1.1100 resistance; USD/JPY awaits BoJ cues, potential 146 breakout on yen weakness. 💡 Tip: Close longs early if data is hawkish – manage weekend risk. ✅Saturday & Sunday, October 11–12, 2025 (Markets Closed) 📎Gold & Forex: Review FOMC, RBNZ, and key data outcomes. Forecast: Gold up 1–2% weekly on dovish Fed signals; DXY tests 95 if data is weak. 💡 Tip: Prep for next week’s inflation data. 🔎Weekly Summary: FOMC minutes and BoJ speech steal the show – dovish signals fuel USD weakness and gold rally, but strong data could shift sentiment. Forex pairs volatile, so risk management is key. Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬 ✉️Stay updated with @shadowtraderfx #Gold#Forex#FOMC#BoJ#XAUUSD#EURUSD

​​В Японии наблюдается самый быстрый рост базовой заработной платы за 32 года благодаря стимулированию #BOJ Базовая заработная плата японских работников растет самыми быстрыми темпами за 32 года, что является положительным сигналом для Банка Японии, который оценивает перспективы экономического роста, основанного на спросе. Базовая заработная плата выросла на 3,1% в январе по сравнению с предыдущим годом, что стало самым значительным повышением с октября 1992 года, сообщило Министерство труда в понедельник. Кроме того, более стабильный показатель динамики заработной платы, который позволяет избежать проблем с выборкой и исключает премии и сверхурочную работу, показал, что заработная плата работников, занятых полный рабочий день, выросла на 3%, впервые с июля превысив этот порог. Рост номинальных денежных доходов в январе замедлился до 2,8% по сравнению с предыдущим годом, что не соответствует консенсус-прогнозу в 3%. Данные свидетельствуют о влиянии роста цен, поскольку реальные денежные доходы упали на 1,8%, что стало самым значительным снижением с марта 2024 года и превзошло прогноз экономистов о снижении на 1,6%. В целом данные свидетельствуют о том, что основные тенденции в сфере заработной платы остаются стабильными, даже несмотря на то, что бюджеты работников продолжают сокращаться из-за сохраняющейся инфляции. Таким образом, эти показатели, скорее всего, позволят Банку Японии продолжать постепенное повышение процентной ставки, поскольку власти балансируют между сохранением темпов роста и нормализацией политики путём повышения ставки до нейтрального уровня. Эти цифры появились в то время, когда ежегодные переговоры о заработной плате между профсоюзами и работодателями должны завершиться на этой неделе, и станут известны предварительные результаты сделок этого года. Японские рабочие, входящие в крупнейшую профсоюзную организацию #Rengo, на прошлой неделе потребовали самого большого повышения заработной платы с 1993 года, показав, что они уверены в своих силах после того, как переговоры в прошлом году привели к самому большому повышению за более чем три десятилетия. Их требования о компенсации также отражают недовольство ростом стоимости жизни. В январе рост потребительских цен ускорился больше, чем ожидалось, поскольку цены на свежие продукты росли самыми быстрыми темпами за последние два десятилетия, а общий уровень инфляции достиг 4%. Банк Японии повысил базовую процентную ставку до 0,5% в январе, и ожидается, что совет директоров сохранит её на прежнем уровне на заседании на следующей неделе, когда чиновники оценят влияние этого шага. По общему мнению, следующее повышение произойдёт летом, хотя некоторые экономисты отмечают риск повышения уже 1 мая. @Bloomberg4you🇯🇵#Япония#зарплата#рост#экономика

📰Top News and Events for the Upcoming Week (October28–3 November, 2025) for Gold and Forex Hey traders! 👋 This week, gold and forex markets are driven by the BoJ rate decision, US Q3 GDP advance, PCE inflation, consumer confidence, and Eurozone preliminary inflation. Amid ongoing Fed watch, resilient US data could shift sentiment hawkish, bolstering the USD and capping gold gains. However, weak prints or dovish BoJ might weaken USD further, fueling safe-haven flows into gold. Key pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are set for volatility from inflation cues and central bank signals. Here’s a day-by-day breakdown for your trades – let’s get ready! 📈 ✈️Follow @shadowtraderfx for more! ✅Tuesday, October 28, 2025 📎Gold: US Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET) starts the week – below-forecast erodes USD, lifting gold as dovish Fed bets rise. 📎Forex: Confidence data moves DXY; weak lifts EUR/USD and GBP/USD. USD/JPY cautious ahead of BoJ. Key event: US Consumer Confidence – a miss favors non-USD pairs. 💡 Tip: Light trading post-holiday; react to data for entries. ✅ Wednesday, October 29, 2025 📎Gold: BoJ rate decision (overnight) in focus – steady rates with dovish hints weaken yen, indirectly supporting gold via USD/JPY dynamics. 📎Forex: BoJ impacts USD/JPY heavily; dovish drops to support levels. EUR/USD consolidates ahead of Euro data. Key event: BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference – watch for hike signals. 💡 Tip: Asia session volatility – set alerts for BoJ surprises. ✅ Thursday, October 30, 2025 📎Gold: US Q3 GDP Advance (8:30 ET) and Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET) dominate – strong GDP strengthens USD, pressuring gold; weak growth boosts safe-haven appeal. 📎Forex: GDP rules USD pairs; hot print drops EUR/USD below key support. GBP/USD eyes UK budget hints. USD/JPY post-BoJ digestion. 💡 Tip: High-impact US data – use tight stops amid potential whipsaws. ✅ Friday, October 31, 2025 📎Gold: Eurozone Preliminary CPI (5:00 ET) and US PCE Inflation (8:30 ET) wrap the month – core PCE above target hawkish Fed, capping gold; softer inflation surges higher. 📎Forex: PCE is Fed’s preferred gauge – weak lifts EUR/USD resistance. USD/JPY sways on yen flows; GBP/USD awaits BoE previews. 💡 Tip: Month-end flows amplify moves – close positions early for weekend risk. ✅ Saturday & Sunday, November 1–2, 2025 (Markets Closed) 📎Gold & Forex: Review BoJ, US GDP/PCE, and Euro CPI outcomes. Forecast: Gold bullish if data dovish; DXY tests lower on weak inflation. 💡 Tip: Prep for next week’s NFP and Fed decision. ✅ Monday, November 3, 2025 📎Gold: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 ET) kicks off – contraction signals boost gold as recession fears rise. 📎Forex: PMI impacts DXY; weak lifts majors. USD/JPY steady post-BoJ. Low-volume ahead of election watch. 💡 Tip: Thin liquidity; focus on breakouts from PMI. 🔎 Weekly Summary: BoJ decision, US GDP, and PCE inflation lead – dovish outcomes fuel USD weakness and gold rallies, but strong data could reinforce hawkish Fed pivot. Forex pairs volatile, so prioritize risk management. Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬 ✈️Stay updated with @shadowtraderfx #Gold#Forex#BoJ#GDP#PCE#XAUUSD#EURUSD

🚀 Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Expects BOJ to Implement Appropriate Monetary Policy Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, has expressed expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will implement appropriate monetary policy measures. According to Jin10, Matsuno emphasized the importance of achieving the BOJ's inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. This statement comes amid ongoing discussions about Japan's economic strategies and the central bank's role in maintaining economic stability. #Japan#BOJ#MonetaryPolicy#InflationTarget#EconomicStability#HirokazuMatsuno#BankOfJapan

🚀 BOJ Vice Governor Discusses Inflation Target Strategy Bank of Japan Vice Governor Ryozo Himino stated that the central bank will adopt the most appropriate policy based on the scale and duration of economic shocks, as well as the prevailing economic environment. According to Jin10, Himino emphasized the importance of achieving a stable inflation target, indicating that the BOJ's approach will be tailored to the specific circumstances at the time. This statement reflects the BOJ's ongoing commitment to adjusting its monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions. #BOJ#BankOfJapan#InflationTarget#MonetaryPolicy#EconomicShocks#EconomicStability#RyozoHimino

Dollar’s Iran War Hangover The dollar is taking a hit, and it’s not because the Fed suddenly got soft — it’s because everyone else decided to go full hawk once Trump set the Middle East on fire. Since the US–Israel war on Iran began and Brent shot roughly 50% higher, markets have flipped from pricing Fed cuts to assuming the Fed just freezes in place while Europe, Britain, Japan and even Australia talk, hint, or move toward hikes. The result: euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Aussie all gain on the week, while the dollar index posts its biggest weekly drop since January — even as traders warn that if the war drags on, the greenback will come back as a classic “safe haven” riding US energy exports and global fear. In Brussels and London, central bankers are suddenly rediscovering inflation. The ECB held rates but all but admitted that energy‑driven price pressure means hikes are back on the table; markets now fully price at least one move by June. The Bank of England did the same “on hold but ready to strike” routine and promptly triggered a rout in short‑dated gilts as traders shoved in roughly 80 basis points of tightening by year‑end. The Bank of Japan, long the global dove, left the door open to a hike as soon as April, giving the yen a rare boost as carry‑traders blinked. Australia simply skipped the winks and raised again, its second hike in two months. Washington, meanwhile, is stuck in a classic Trump‑era contradiction. The Fed sits on its hands because Powell has no idea how deep the war damage will go, money markets have killed off hopes of rate cuts but haven’t priced hikes, and at the same time the administration is begging Saudi Arabia and Israel not to push Iran’s energy network over a cliff while openly considering unsanctioning Iranian barrels and already relaxing restrictions on Russian oil at sea. LNG in the Gulf gets hit, the world’s largest gas complex is “crippled,” crude flirts with $120, and the supposed king currency of the system spends a week being marked down because everyone else is hiking to pay for Trump’s freedom‑of‑navigation cosplay. The punchline for a Telegram feed is simple: the war Trump sold as strength is now rewriting global rate expectations, making Europe and Asia look tougher than the Fed on inflation, and briefly knocking the dollar down — while every serious strategist quietly adds the same caveat. If this conflict drags on and the shock gets bigger, the dollar doesn’t die; it comes back stronger as the world’s favorite panic asset, backed by US oil and a war bill that someone will eventually have to pay. #IranWar#Trump#dollar#Fed#ECB#BoE#BoJ#RBA#FX#oil#gas#energyCrisis#markets#warCost#fakeStability 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸