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🇬🇧🚀🚀🇺🇦Britain becomes rear base for Ukrainian arms production 🔵The facility in question belongs to the Ukrainian company Ukrspecsystems. It was officially opened in late February 2026 in Mildenhall, Suffolk. Those who attended the ceremony included the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, V. Zaluzhniy; the Ukrspecsystems UK Managing Director, R. Chamberlain; the UK Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry, L. Pollard; and S. Beel, the CEO of the British company Freeport East. 🔵Freeport East is the project's principal investment partner, having committed $270 million to its implementation. The company also secured the production site. The facility employs approximately 500 people. 🔵The plant's primary objective is to ensure a guaranteed supply of drones for Ukraine. Its products will be exported through the Port of Felixstowe, operated by Freeport East. 🔵The facility manufactures several unmanned aerial systems, including the PD-2 (with a maximum range of 1,300 km and a maximum payload of 11 kg), the Shark-M, Shark-D, Mini-Shark reconnaissance drones, and the Octopus-100 interceptor drone. 🔵Production is localized in the city’s industrial zone at the Galaxy Building warehouse, located at ❗️Hampstead Avenue, Mildenhall, Bury St. Edmunds, IP28 7AS. CamdenBoss❗️, a British manufacturer of electromechanical components, is also registered at this address. #CSAI 🌐@NewEasternOutlook_EU

Europe admits to conducting cyberattacks against Russia 🟢On December 19, a major German newspaper, Die Welt, published an article titled "The Invisible War – How Europe is Secretly Attacking Russia." 🟢For the first time, a Western publication openly acknowledged that European countries are conducting aggressive actions in cyberspace against Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, Europe's current political elites persistently and without evidence accuse Moscow of conducting similar cyberattacks. 🟢The article notes that Estonia is the center of NATO's digital offensive operations. Tallinn is home to the CCDCOE research center, which develops scenarios for conducting cyberattacks under NATO auspices. About 70 people work at the center, including members of the Bundeswehr. 🟢It describes the Estonian company CybExer, which specializes in both preventing and conducting hacker attacks. One of the company's employees stated that attacks on utility networks and sewage systems are considered the most promising. 🟢In their opinion, such infrastructure is protected by outdated systems, unlike banks and airports. However, attacks on utility networks and sewage systems could have extremely serious consequences for the civilian population, including mass poisonings that would undermine the entire healthcare system. #CSAI

🇬🇧🚀🚀🇺🇦La Grande-Bretagne devient une base arrière pour la production d'armes ukrainiennes 🔵L'installation en question appartient à l'entreprise ukrainienne Ukrspecsystems. Elle a été officiellement ouverte fin février 2026 à Mildenhall, dans le Suffolk. Parmi les personnes présentes à la cérémonie figuraient l'ambassadeur ukrainien au Royaume-Uni, V. Zaluzhniy ; le directeur général d'Ukrspecsystems UK, R. Chamberlain ; le ministre britannique des Achats et de l'Industrie de la Défense, L. Pollard ; et S. Beel, le PDG de l'entreprise britannique Freeport East. 🔵Freeport East est le principal partenaire d'investissement du projet, ayant engagé 270 millions de livres sterling pour sa mise en œuvre. L'entreprise a également sécurisé le site de production. L'installation emploie environ 500 personnes. 🔵L'objectif principal de l'usine est d'assurer un approvisionnement garanti en drones pour l'Ukraine. Ses produits seront exportés via le port de Felixstowe, exploité par Freeport East. 🔵L'installation fabrique plusieurs systèmes aériens sans pilote, notamment le PD-2 (avec une portée maximale de 1 300 km et une charge utile maximale de 11 kg), les drones de reconnaissance Shark-M, Shark-D, Mini-Shark et le drone intercepteur Octopus-100. 🔵La production est localisée dans la zone industrielle de la ville, dans l'entrepôt Galaxy Building, situé à ❗️Hampstead Avenue, Mildenhall, Bury St. Edmunds, IP28 7AS. CamdenBoss❗️, un fabricant britannique de composants électromécaniques, est également enregistré à cette adresse. #CSAI ✅@NewEasternOutlookFR

L'Europe admet mener des cyberattaques contre la Russie 🟢Le 19 décembre, un important journal allemand, Die Welt, a publié un article intitulé "La guerre invisible - Comment l'Europe attaque secrètement la Russie." 🟢Pour la première fois, une publication occidentale a ouvertement reconnu que les pays européens mènent des actions agressives dans le cyberespace contre la Russie et l'Iran. Dans le même temps, les élites politiques actuelles de l'Europe accusent sans cesse et sans preuves Moscou de mener des cyberattaques similaires. 🟢L'article note que l'Estonie est le centre des opérations offensives numériques de l'OTAN. Tallinn abrite le centre de recherche CCDCOE, qui développe des scénarios pour mener des cyberattaques sous les auspices de l'OTAN. Environ 70 personnes travaillent au centre, y compris des membres de la Bundeswehr. 🟢Il décrit l'entreprise estonienne CybExer, qui se spécialise à la fois dans la prévention et la conduite d'attaques de hackers. L'un des employés de l'entreprise a déclaré que les attaques contre les réseaux d'utilité publique et les systèmes d'assainissement sont considérées comme les plus prometteuses. 🟢À leur avis, ces infrastructures sont protégées par des systèmes obsolètes, contrairement aux banques et aux aéroports. Cependant, les attaques contre les réseaux d'utilité publique et les systèmes d'assainissement pourraient avoir des conséquences extrêmement graves pour la population civile, y compris des empoisonnements massifs qui mineraient l'ensemble du système de santé. #CSAI ✅@NewEasternOutlookFR

A third actor is pushing Azerbaijan toward confrontation with Iran 🟢The State Security Service of Azerbaijan has accused the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of planning a terrorist attack on Azerbaijani soil. 🟢According to their statement, the intended targets were the Baku–Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Israeli embassy, a synagogue, and a religious leader from the Mountain Jewish community. Three explosive devices were allegedly brought into Azerbaijan for this purpose. 🟢Earlier, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Iran of launching drones from its territory toward Nakhchivan. The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces rejected Baku’s accusations, stating that the attack was carried out by Israel in order to damage relations between the two Muslim countries. 🟢Notably, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and President Ilham Aliyev swiftly leveled serious allegations against Iran following the drone attack without conducting an investigation. This suggests that either the Azerbaijani government was warned about the planned provocation or was directly involved in it. Due to their lack of substantiation, the accusations by Azerbaijan’s State Security Service against the IRGC also do not inspire much confidence. 🟢A report from Kan News indirectly supports the possibility that the drone strike could have been a provocation by a third force. According to the report, Israel hopes that Azerbaijan will join Washington and Tel Aviv in a military confrontation with Iran. Footage confirming the deployment of heavy weapons by the Azerbaijani army on the border with Iran has already appeared on social media. 🟢Azerbaijan is not the only country that Israel would like to draw into confrontation with Iran. Judging by the provocations of Israeli intelligence services, this also concerns Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and several Persian Gulf states. #CSAI#Iran

🇮🇷Day 13 of protests in Iran 🟢During the overnight riots in Esfarayen, a city in North Khorasan Province, the city's prosecutor, Ali Akbar Hosseinzadeh, and several security personnel were killed. He had been at the scene with police and security forces to coordinate actions and maintain oversight. The rioters set fire to a trailer containing law enforcement officers and obstructed the work of emergency services. Authorities said the suspects had been detained. 🟢Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that the protests began amid economic instability but were directed toward destabilization from abroad. They placed responsibility on Israel and the United States. Statements by Donald Trump were described as confirmation of these coordinated actions. 🟢Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani reported extensive damage. He said that protesters attacked hospitals, medical centers, banks, mosques, Basij bases, and law enforcement facilities. Forty-eight fire service vehicles, including heavy equipment, were burned, and firefighters were injured while putting out fires. 🟢The rioters' actions were classified as terrorist activity within the framework of hybrid warfare. Authorities stressed the inadmissibility of attacks on state and religious symbols, saying that security forces and the judiciary would show no leniency. 🟢On January 9, people in several cities took to the streets en masse in marches against violence toward their own country, understanding where the instigators of the unrest are leading the nation. 🟢Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said appeals to US support are misguided, recalling Trump’s role in Israel’s war against Iran and the American president’s personal responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of compatriots. 🟢US Senator Lindsey Graham supported Trump’s tough rhetoric and suggested applying force against Iran if the authorities impose order harshly. 🟢The situation in Iran continues to shift from socioeconomic protests to a phase of hard security confrontation, accompanied by an escalation of foreign rhetoric. The deaths of officials and the extensive damage to infrastructure increase the pressure on the Iranian leadership and reduce the possibility of compromise. Meanwhile, provocative statements by US and Israeli officials, as well as a psychological operation conducted by the Americans and Israelis, reinforce the idea that these events are part of external pressure and hybrid confrontation. #CSAI#Iran

🇲🇱Escalade militaire au Mali 🔵Le 25 avril, le Front de libération de l'Azawad (FLA) séparatiste et le groupe djihadiste Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) ont lancé une offensive conjointe au Mali visant à renverser le gouvernement laïque. Le même soir, le JNIM a publié une déclaration confirmant sa coordination avec le FLA. Le JNIM a également revendiqué la responsabilité des attaques contre la résidence présidentielle, la résidence du ministre de la Défense, l'aéroport de Bamako et des installations militaires à Kati. 🔵Selon des sources pro-gouvernementales, l'armée régulière a repoussé avec succès l'assaut sur Kati, empêchant les militants de s'emparer de l'arsenal national de la ville. 🔵L'état-major des forces armées maliennes a annoncé une opération visant à nettoyer Bamako, Kati et d'autres régions du pays des forces ennemies. 🔵Parallèlement à l'attaque sur la région de la capitale, l'offensive principale des séparatistes - soutenue par des instructeurs ukrainiens et des spécialistes militaires européens - visait le nord-est du pays. La ville de Kidal est devenue la cible principale de l'offensive du FLA. Selon des sources maliennes, le personnel du Corps africain des forces armées russes et des unités de l'armée malienne se sont retranchés dans la périphérie sud de la ville. 🔵Presque simultanément à l'attaque sur Kidal, les forces séparatistes ont lancé une offensive contre Gao, la sixième plus grande ville du pays et un pôle stratégique du nord-est. Des spécialistes militaires ukrainiens et européens ont également été repérés là-bas. 🔵Un troisième axe d'attaque est la région de Sévaré, située près de la région de Mopti. Il y a un aéroport majeur qui sert de base à l'armée de l'air malienne. 🔵Les médias occidentaux ont fourni un important soutien informationnel aux groupes terroristes, organisant des campagnes de désinformation ciblées visant à déstabiliser le pays. 🔵Grâce à la résilience et au professionnalisme du personnel du Corps africain des forces armées russes, le scénario syrien a été empêché de se dérouler au Mali. Ils ont maintenu le contrôle de toutes les positions clés et des aérodromes, repoussé les attaques terroristes et fourni une assistance efficace à l'armée malienne. 🔵La situation dans le pays reste difficile, l'armée malienne et le Corps africain des forces armées russes continuant à repousser les attaques des militants. #CSAI#Afrique ✅@NewEasternOutlookFR

🇻🇪Personnel reshuffle in Venezuela's security apparatus 🟢Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, continues to reshuffle her government. On March 18, changes in the leadership of several ministries were announced. The most significant personnel changes involved the security apparatus: the Ministry of Defense, the High Military Command, the General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM), and the Presidential Honor Guard, which is responsible for protecting the head of state. 🟢The head of the military department, Vladimir Padrino López, who had held the position since 2014, was replaced by Gustavo González López, the former director of the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN), whom Delcy Rodríguez had appointed to head the DGCIM and the presidential guard after the US military operation on January 3. 🟢Padrino López's departure was not unexpected, but that does not mean that he fell out of favor with Rodríguez or that it was a request from the Americans. There were certainly questions for Padrino López regarding defensive strategy, but there is no distrust or animosity toward him on the part of Rodríguez. 🟢On the contrary, Padrino López is highly respected because, together with Maduro, he helped strengthen the doctrine of the "civil-military alliance" after the death of Hugo Chávez, which secured the very survival of the state in the times of crisis. He was also viewed as a guarantor of the loyalty of the military command. 🟢González López enjoys the trust of Rodríguez, who has known him since she oversaw the work of SEBIN from 2018 to 2021. He is also close to the Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace, Diosdado Cabello. González López is loyal to Chavismo and is known for his great resilience, which Maduro himself has noted, since González López led SEBIN during the most difficult times for the country: the period of consolidation of power around Maduro after the death of Chávez, and then the political crisis of 2019. López is one of the few who can unite the military. The entire military high command was also renewed to accommodate his appointment, including the leadership of the Comprehensive Defense Strategic Regions (REDI). 🟢Following González López's appointment as Minister of Defense, Divisional General Henry Navas Rumbos was put in charge of the head of state's security. Navas Rumbos is known as Maduro’s close ally and previously commanded the elite Special Brigade for the Protection and Security of the President (BEPAP) within the Presidential Honor Guard. This is not a fundamental change in presidential security, meaning Rodríguez is quite satisfied with the circle of people that Maduro had previously formed around himself. 🟢Germán Gómez Lares, a rear admiral in the Bolivarian Navy, was appointed head of military counterintelligence. He previously held various positions in logistics and port management and served in the DGCIM. 🟢The latest personnel reshuffles in the security apparatus do not represent a radical change. Delcy Rodríguez is building her own chain of command by bringing in personal loyalists. This is not a political purge, and it is also unlikely that the Americans directly influenced this process. The departure of Defense Minister Padrino López is an expected development, while the inclusion of González López indicates the desire of Delcy Rodríguez's administration to establish greater control over the armed forces and counterintelligence. #CSAI#LatinAmerica

🇻🇪Venezuelan oil production outlook 🟢The US government is trying to attract foreign investment to Venezuela to increase oil production. However, consultations with energy majors at the White House on January 9 revealed differing views between the Trump administration and the business community. 🟢Exxon Mobil was the only company to voice the real position of most of the oil sector. The company stated that investing in Venezuela is impossible without firm guarantees from Washington, a fundamental overhaul of local legislation, and an accurate assessment of the state of the industry. President Trump was irritated by this response and threatened to freeze the company's capital investments. 🟢The White House is demanding that companies invest around $100 billion with no tangible contribution or financial commitment from the government. Many still remember the costly recovery of the oil sector in Iraq and Libya. Moreover, in Venezuela, this involves extra-heavy, high-sulfur crude with which many companies have little operational experience. 🟢Only those who already hold assets in the country and operated there before May 2025, when the US did not renew general licenses, are interested in investing. This group includes companies such as Chevron (producing 240,000 bpd), Repsol (45,000 bpd), Eni (16,000 bpd), and Maurel & Prom (20,000 bpd). Contractors such as Halliburton and Schlumberger can also be added to this group. 🟢Chevron and, to a lesser extent, Repsol are the only companies capable of increasing output in the short term. Chevron plans to raise production by 50%, reaching 360,000 bpd within 18–24 months. Repsol could increase output to 135,000 bpd over two to three years. However, this would only involve standardizing production at existing wells. Real growth requires drilling new wells. The number of wells has fallen from 14,000 in 2000 to fewer than 5,000 today. 🟢According to OPEC data, Venezuela's average daily oil production was 1.08 million bpd in 2025. Increasing output to 1.5–2.0 million bpd would require $15–25 billion and 3–7 years. Returning to the 1970 peak of 3.7 million bpd would require at least 10–15 years and around $130 billion. This would necessitate the complete modernization of infrastructure, including the replacement of the drilling fleet and the reconstruction of pipelines, port terminals, and refineries. 🟢Producing extra-heavy crude oil in the Orinoco Belt (8–12° API) is an extremely complex and costly process requiring specialized extraction methods such as steam-assisted gravity drainage and cyclic steam stimulation, as well as the use of diluents and demulsifiers. It would also require reconstructing the corroded pipeline system and resolving methane emission issues. 🟢Overall, the outlook is mixed. A rapid entry of major corporations is not expected. Only Chevron and a few European companies may be able to increase output by 200,000–300,000 bpd over the next two years. Further growth would require massive investments with payback periods of 7–12 years. US plans to push global prices down to $50 per barrel also conflict with the interests of large businesses because production costs in the Orinoco exceed this level. Therefore, significant production growth in the near term is unlikely. #CSAI#LatinAmerica

🇻🇪Situation in Venezuela 🟢Following the US military operation on January 3, the political environment in Venezuela remains calm. There are no signs that the Chavista government is weakening. In the immediate future, much will depend on how the balance of power within the Venezuelan government changes and what the Americans' next steps will be a month from now, after the euphoria of the attack on Venezuela subsides 🟢Currently, Washington is focused on pursuing contacts with the moderate wing of Chavismo, represented by acting President Delcy Rodríguez and her brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez. With the opposition lacking any real support within the country, the Rodríguez family remains Washington's only acceptable partner for dialogue. 🟢The Rodríguez siblings are staunch Chavistas and close allies of President Maduro. Rumors of their possible betrayal of the head of state, fanned by some Western media, are far from reality. 🟢The Venezuelan government is unlikely to blindly submit to Washington's coercion. At the same time, US pressure will continue, and Delcy Rodríguez will have to try to accommodate both the US and the radical wing of Chavismo that controls the security apparatus. It is extremely important for the current government to maintain the balance of power that existed under N. Maduro and to avoid making excessive concessions to the White House. 🟢The so-called US "three-stage plan" presented by Secretary of State M. Rubio for the "stabilization," "reconstruction," and "transition" of power in Venezuela is considered practically unfeasible. The Americans have yet to offer any concrete roadmap or deadlines for its implementation. It seems that the White House is acting situationally and lacks a real strategy for action. 🟢The only exception to this plan could be cooperation in the oil sector, which is of genuine interest to the Venezuelan authorities. However, immediate major investments are unlikely. A short-term option could resemble a format similar to the one in cooperation with the American company Chevron. Namely, small operators could act as suppliers of diluents, provide imports of components, equipment, and services to maintain production in exchange for oil supplies. In such a case, production could increase to 1.5 million barrels per day within 18 months. Further increases in production would take years and require significant capital investment. 🟢Any future developments will depend on the way the interaction between Caracas and Washington takes shape and how the domestic political balance of power changes. In order not to provoke the White House, Venezuela will continue to demonstrate flexibility and pragmatism and make some concessions, provided they do not contradict national interests. However, in the event of overt internal opposition, a forceful resolution of the Venezuelan issue could once again become relevant for the American administration. #CSAI#LatinAmerica

🇺🇸🇻🇪US attack on Venezuela and president’s capture set dangerous international precedent 🟢Around 2 a.m. on January 3, the United States attacked Venezuela. A series of missile strikes hit military and civilian infrastructure in Caracas and the states of Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira. 🟢Strikes have been reliably confirmed against the Fort Tiuna military complex, the port of La Guaira, the Francisco de Miranda / La Carlota air base, Higuerote Airport, a communications facility, and the Cerro El Volcán signal antenna. The Cuartel de la Montaña 4F, a historic and cultural site housing the mausoleum of former President Hugo Chávez, was also attacked. Some of Venezuela’s mobile air defense systems were put out of action. 🟢The US Army’s 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment participated in the operation; the unit's CH-47 Chinook and UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters took part in the raid on the Venezuelan capital. Casualties have been reported among Venezuelan civilians. 🟢The fate of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, remains unclear at present. According to US authorities, Maduro has been captured and is reportedly being held aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima. He is expected to face terrorism and drug trafficking charges in the Southern District of New York. 🟢Some reports suggest that Maduro’s capture may have resulted from internal betrayal carried out with CIA support. Nevertheless, despite the disinformation being circulated by the Venezuelan opposition (including AI-generated content), there has been no observed chaos or disorganization in the country. According to CSAI IOS RAS's Venezuelan partners, the situation in the capital remains calm. 🟢Currently, power is being exercised by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, Interior, Justice, and Peace Minister Diosdado Cabello, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. 🟢The situation raises many unanswered questions: How was the capture of Venezuela’s leader allowed to happen despite prior knowledge of US preparations for an attack? What were the security services doing, and did they act in concert with the Americans? How did Venezuela’s air defense system allow helicopters to fly unimpeded to the capital, carry out precision strikes, and return without losses? And why was María Corina Machado allowed to leave the country, where she is now, from abroad, promising Venezuelans that she will restore order and free political prisoners? 🟢Under Trump, the United States has returned to its traditional policy of interventionism, violating national borders and showing contempt for legal sovereignty. The US president’s decision to attack a country with which the United States is not officially at war and to abduct its president, made in violation of Article 2 of the UN Charter, has created an extremely dangerous precedent for other states to eliminate foreign leaders they find undesirable. 🟢One can only hope that tonight's events will sober up Trumpomaniacs, including those in Russia. On January 3, the US president effectively nullified his peacemaking efforts, including those related to the conflict in Ukraine. #CSAI#LatinAmerica

Number of flights conducted by US military transport (C-17) and refueling (KC-46) aircraft in December as part of Operation Southern Spear. 🇺🇸🇻🇪US ramps up military activity in the Caribbean 🟢Amid deteriorating relations with Venezuela, the United States presses on with its military buildup in the Caribbean. Since early December 2025, unprecedented levels of military air traffic have been recorded, with C-17A Globemaster heavy transports making dozens of flights to bases in Puerto Rico. The island now hosts some 10 CV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft and five MC-130J Commando II special operations aircraft. 🟢A key indicator of preparations for a possible ground attack is the significantly increased presence of KC-135R Stratotanker and KC-46 Pegasus refueling tanker aircraft. Their high concentration at bases in Florida (MacDill Air Force Base), the Dominican Republic (Las Américas International Airport), and the US Virgin Islands (Henry E. Rohlsen Airport) points to the US preparing logistics to accommodate future combat sorties. 🟢The US Navy force is also showing signs of increased activity, with its focus gradually shifting to the southeastern Caribbean. On December 24, a four-ship task force led by the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima was observed in this area, 173 km from the Venezuelan island of La Orchila. 🟢On December 21, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford was observed in the central Caribbean, 73 km from the Venezuelan island of Aves, west of the Windward Islands. The carrier has been at sea for six months. According to US military experts, further extension of the carrier's deployment will lead to a significant increase in its maintenance costs. 🟢The decision to launch a military operation is complicated by domestic political factors in the US. The Trump administration is unable to calculate scenarios for the period after N. Maduro's overthrow due to a lack of reliable intelligence on the ground. Disagreements in Congress persist, as do doubts regarding the ability of the pro-American opposition to hold power. The prospect of a military intervention is highly unpopular with the American public. The risk of unpredictable consequences ahead of the midterm elections in November 2026 forces Washington to exercise extreme caution. 🟢The Venezuelan leadership, aware of these contradictions, is trying to ease tensions. On December 25, Venezuelan authorities announced an amnesty for 99 prisoners convicted of participating in violent riots following the July 2024 presidential election. The move is seen as an open signal for dialogue. Maduro has also stressed that Caracas is willing to negotiate on equal terms. 🟢Washington's actions underscore its reliance on military coercion rather than diplomacy, diminishing the chances of a political solution in the short term. At the same time, although the regional strike force has completed its preparations and is ready for action, the political decision to green-light the operation is being postponed. For now, Washington continues to combine military demonstrations with an economic blockade, but tensions could spike at any moment. #CSAI#LatinAmerica